The case for a new model of Clean Technology Partnerships

Demand for clean energy technologies is rising across Europe at the very time that European countries are falling behind on deployment targets in critical sectors. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have reaffirmed the case for accelerating the clean energy transition as a route to greater energy security. Yet supply chains underpinning key technologies – from critical minerals and permanent magnets to batteries and wind power – remain highly concentrated and increasingly exposed to geopolitical risk. Without effective mitigation, Europe’s drive towards greater energy security risks entrenching new forms of dependency, undermining European economic and security interests as well as its energy transition and climate objectives.

A more transactional geopolitical context

European countries are operating within a geopolitical context defined by great power rivalry, a fragmented global economy, and an increasingly transactional approach to relations between allies. China dominates critical supply chains and has demonstrated a willingness to weaponise economic dependencies for geopolitical advantage – in particular its control over the processing of rare earths. The US is pulling back from the energy transition while seeking to reshore industry through subsidies, tariffs and export controls. Against this backdrop, Europe’s own autonomy is constrained by high energy costs and stretched public finances, forcing near-term trade-offs over which sectors to prioritise. This could compound longer-term bottlenecks and constraints.

European governments are seeking to reconcile several competing objectives: strengthening industrial competitiveness, accelerating decarbonisation, managing rising costs for businesses and consumers, and enhancing European security amid a deteriorating external environment.

They have attempted to respond to the geopolitical challenge through measures including the EU's Net Zero Industry Act, Clean Industrial Deal, and proposed Industrial Accelerator Act which aim to build more resilient supply chains. The UK’s Modern Industrial Strategy and Clean Power 2030 Action Plan share similar objectives. Further strategic partnerships at the bilateral level, such as the EU’s Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships and critical minerals agreements with countries including Japan and South Korea, aim to create a basis for ongoing cooperation.

As complexity and risk grows, Europe must establish a more systematic and targeted framework for industrial interventions to prove sustainable – one that helps governments distinguish between acceptable and unacceptable dependencies, decide where to scale domestic industry, and identify which parts of the supply chain to share with trusted partners where self-sufficiency is not practical or desirable.

A new framework for prioritising partnerships

The Clean Technology Partnerships Initiative (CTPI) was established to help governments prioritise where to act on clean technology supply chains and to turn those decisions into investable deals which build supply-side resilience. It provides a data-driven, technology-neutral framework for prioritising sectors for public policy intervention and investment across Europe and with key partner countries. It offers a structured methodology to evaluate supply chain vulnerabilities, risks and industrial competitiveness to identify partnerships and build commercially viable supply chains by:

1. Prioritising clean energy technologies using three lenses: national security, energy resilience, and economic growth.
2. Identifying the supply chains within these technologies where partnership can effectively reduce dependency, focused on areas with the greatest concentration risk, capacity shortfalls, or cost disadvantages.
3. Matching each requirement to a small group of trusted partner countries and the right partnership model – from inward investment and joint ventures to strategic imports, equity stakes and offtake agreements, sequenced by urgency, execution speed and value-chain interdependency to deliver globally competitive, resilient supply chains.

The result is a practical route to turn high-level geostrategic ambition into tangible, implementable measures that governments and industry can take forward.

The analysis assesses eight key technologies – batteries, offshore wind, grid equipment, nuclear, heat pumps, geothermal, green steel and green ammonia – and identifies the ten highest priority supply chain interventions within these. It finds that a sequenced investment programme (estimated €19-36 billion, roughly half of which is public finance – and less than 6% of Europe's annual energy system investment) across these supply chains could unlock 10-15 per cent of additional production capacity in partner countries in critical technologies, with the potential to catalyse these supply chains towards commercial viability and global competitiveness.

What could this mean for businesses and investors?

For businesses, the key takeaway is that European industrial policy is becoming more selective and more geopolitical. Rather than broad-based subsidy, governments are increasingly likely to back a smaller number of deals in critical technology supply chains, anchored in trusted international partnerships and focused on commercially viable projects that strengthen national and energy security, industrial competitiveness and economic resilience. Businesses should therefore expect this to translate into sharper focus on specific technologies, supply chain bottlenecks and strategic partner countries.

In particular, companies should watch for:

• A more targeted, deal-led approach to critical supply chains, with governments favouring partnership terms that share technology and retain value in Europe over arrangements that keep IP and upstream value offshore.
• A shift towards demand-side measures and financing instruments – long-term offtake agreements, export credit and blended finance – as the preferred route to de-risking strategic investment, with equity stakes and joint ventures deployed in cases where deeper supply chain control is needed.
• Faster-moving deals in chokepoint sectors, including rare earth permanent magnets, battery electrode materials, and nuclear fuel, against slower progress in manufacturing build-out and emerging markets like green ammonia.
• A growing premium on trusted partner countries – chiefly South Korea, Japan, Australia, Canada and Brazil – as governments weigh investment priorities and industrial policy with national security concerns.  

Businesses that engage early with policymakers, demonstrate how projects align with energy security and industrial objectives, and position themselves within priority supply chains are likely to be best placed to benefit as governments move from high-level strategies towards delivering specific commercial partnerships.

Flint Global leads the secretariat for CTPI and advises businesses on navigating a shifting geopolitical, policy and regulatory landscape. The secretariat team is led by Virginia Sentance. Virginia is a Partner at Flint, leading our Climate and Sustainability practice. She is supported by Rebecca Tremain (Associate Director), Lauren Milner (Manager), Lynsey Pardoe (Senior Consultant), Tom Severn (Consultant) and Klara Rehm (Consultant).

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Today the CTPI launched its flagship report A geoeconomic strategy for Europe: Building clean technology partnerships. The CTPI is an independent, not-for-profit initiative, bringing together expertise in investment, economics and foreign policy to help governments move from analysis to action.