Europe enters a dense sequence of summits over the next few weeks, including the G7, European Council, NATO summit and potentially an EU-UK summit, against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical and economic pressure. Managing relations with an increasingly embattled President Trump will be a recurring theme as tensions continue to simmer over Ukraine, Iran, trade, […]
One of the most important consequences of geopolitical uncertainty is that it is no longer confined to foreign policy debates. It is increasingly appearing in financial statements, insurance markets and capital allocation decisions. Historically, geopolitical risk was treated as a largely external concern for financial institutions. That assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Conflict in Ukraine and the […]
Control over AI becomes existential for European leaders European tech sovereignty agendas are moving rapidly from political rhetoric to concrete policy, with AI at its centre. Governments increasingly view AI not only as a driver of productivity and economic growth, but also as a strategic capability linked to national security. This, in turn, drives their concerns about Europe’s reliance on foreign providers across the AI stack – from advanced semiconductors and compute capacity to frontier […]
The state of play Following the Supreme Court’s February ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, the Trump Administration has moved quickly to preserve broad tariff coverage through alternative legal authorities. The immediate response was the introduction of a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade […]
Asia-Pacific bearing the brunt of shortages Roughly 80% of crude oil and LNG passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, making the region especially vulnerable to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. The scale of impact varies market-to-market: Beyond energy, the impact is compounded by second-order supply disruptions. The possibility of fertiliser shortages is a particular concern – India, […]
Key takeaways for investors Ten key considerations for investors into the UK and Europe in 2026 This blog was written by Martin Summers Director in the Private Markets team, Joe Jones, Partner and Dylan Saralis, Associate Director. We offer buy and sell side services: regulatory, policy and political DD, advice on trade, on competition policy […]
On 3 January, US forces carried out airstrikes and a military operation in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, capturing President Nicolás Maduro who has been in power since 2013. Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has assumed presidential powers as interim President. This US action in Venezuela illustrates Trump’s increased focus on the US sphere of influence in the Western […]
Policymakers often refer to the “Brussels Effect”, the term for how the European Union has historically exerted influence on global regulatory standards through the size of its market and the reach of its rules to market participants beyond the EU. Brussels often pushes more prescriptive rules ex-ante, which have often clashed with the more principles-based approach preferred by the U.S.. There is no question that Brussels’ global influence on standards setting […]
We need to understand how geopolitics is changing the context and priorities for trade. In the nineties and noughties, halcyon days of globalization, I spent seven years in Brussels promoting liberal EU (and UK) trade policies. Now we live in very different times. The pursuit of a more integrated global economy based on comparative […]
Political backdrop Several key themes form the backdrop to this intense diplomatic sequence. On Ukraine, the focus has shifted decisively back to the military track following the unsuccessful US attempt at negotiating a ceasefire. Tensions remain high in the Middle East. An Iran-Israel escalation is a major risk following Israel’s unprecedented strikes against Iran’s nuclear […]
A strategic shift Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s commitment to increasing the UK’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (2.6% including National Security spending), with an ambition to achieve 3% in the next parliamentary term, marks a significant shift in UK national priorities. The decision, funded by a reduction in the overseas aid budget, […]
Since his inauguration, President Donald Trump has imposed country-specific tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico and threatened reciprocal tariffs on other countries. He has also announced steel and aluminium tariffs, due to take effect on 12 March, alongside threats of potential tariffs on other sectors, including automotive and pharmaceuticals. This blog identifies countries and sectors […]
