Category: Geopolitics

Ten consequences for business of a second Trump presidency 

Donald Trump is at present polling marginally ahead of Joe Biden. It is too close to call at this distance, and events between now and November will continue to shape the outcome. However, a second Trump term is obviously a realistic prospect. Here we consider ten things global businesses should be thinking about. 1. Good […]
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17 Jun, 2024

US Presidential election – either way, it’s America first 

The US Presidential and Congressional elections will take place on 5th November. The result will have far-reaching consequences globally and could have a significant impact on businesses operating in the US.  Electoral dynamics  The Presidential election on 5 November is highly likely to be fought between Trump and Biden. The last Republican challenger Nikki Haley […]
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27 Feb, 2024

Trade defence dominoes

In March 2018, when President Trump slapped a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel, the EU quickly followed suit.   The EU’s rationale for copying the US, despite criticising Trump’s original action, was to safeguard against the risk that steel originally destined for America would be deflected onto the European market.   When a large economy […]
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07 Feb, 2024

What does 2024 hold for global trade policy? 

Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, combined with wider geopolitical tensions made for a challenging 2023 commercial operating environment. 2024 promises much of the same for global trade policy. Election year Over 50% of the global economy will go to the polls in 2024, with elections (and potentially new governments) in key markets such as […]
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31 Jan, 2024

Flint's guide to COP28

1. What is COP28? In this look-ahead post, we provide a brief guide to COP28, the key issues and items of agenda headed into the event. COP (“conference of the parties”) takes place every year and is the world’s only multilateral decision-making forum on climate change, attracting high-level global participation and interest. Each COP seeks […]
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29 Nov, 2023

2024 Elections: An overview of the political landscape

Over 2 billion people – a quarter of the world’s population – will be affected by elections in 2024, including in the US, EU, UK, Taiwan, India and Russia. Some will have significant global implications, though in many cases the full effects will not play through until 2025. This blog explores the upcoming elections and […]
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09 Nov, 2023

COP28 could mark a new climate crossroads 

The COP28 summit in Dubai is taking place against a challenging geopolitical backdrop and an economic context not conducive to keeping global emissions in check. Despite this, the UAE Presidency is focused on achieving a solid result and hopes that significant commitments can be unlocked from high-emitting sectors, including upstream oil and gas. Progress through […]
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03 Oct, 2023

Starmer meets Macron: building ties for the future? 

In the run-up to a general election, being seen interacting with world leaders is an important element to building legitimacy and credibility for both the incumbent and challenger campaigning for the top spot. The meeting between Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron on 19 September is such a moment. It concludes an intense international week for […]
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19 Sep, 2023

Midterm in Germany: Where does the coalition stand?

Midterm in the German election cycle, at the beginning of the 2023 summer recess, the “progress coalition” led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) appears increasingly tired, with the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine dominating much of the government’s attention and policymaking. The energy […]
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09 Aug, 2023

UK-US cooperation on the digital economy: reasons to celebrate?

Headlines coming out of Rishi Sunak’s recent visit to the US focused on the UK-US ‘Atlantic Declaration’. The Declaration covers a range of areas for bilateral cooperation, with a significant focus on digital and tech. This includes substantive commitments on the UK-US data bridge and cooperation on emerging technologies including AI, as well as a […]
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20 Jun, 2023

G7 summit: the challenges to Western unity 

The G7 Leaders’ Summit is taking place on 19 – 21 May in Hiroshima, Japan. Economic security and combating economic coercion will be the dominant themes, driven by the US as they push allies to curb dependencies on China.   Opposition to Russia and support for Ukraine will be the other main theme. Leaders will discuss a […]
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19 May, 2023

What the Integrated Review refresh means for British foreign policy

Last week, the Government published the long-awaited “refresh” to its national security and international policy, the Integrated Review (“IR23”). The Government also announced an additional £11 billion to the defence budget over the next 5 years, with £5 billion of that in the first 2 years.   The Integrated Review, initially published in March 2021 (“IR21”), […]
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24 Mar, 2023
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