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The next six months will be a defining period for the UK’s clean energy transition. The government’s Clean Power 2030 (CP2030) target means scaling up renewables and grid infrastructure to four times the level of investment seen over the past five years - estimated at £40bn per year through to 2030. Delivery depends on coordinated, timely action across government, NESO, Ofgem, and industry, and everything has to go right for the target to be achieved.
Between now and spring, we’ll have the clearest signals yet on whether the UK is on track to deliver, and at what cost. Key reforms and decisions will determine not just how much can be built, but how fast, how affordably and with what degree of political and investor confidence.
For government, the timing is politically challenging. Anticipated increases in energy bills will play directly into the narrative around net zero in the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections.
Post government's decision to rule out zonal pricing, much attention will be given to the development of Reformed National Pricing. However, in the immediate term, it is actually the progress of a number of other programmes that really matter in the context of CP2030 delivery, and in particular what they reveal taken together about coordinated delivery, pace, and cost of the transition. These include:
Delivering CP2030 will depend on coordinated decisions about how much new capacity is needed, where it should be built and when. From October, NESO will begin to clarify, through its Connections Reform – Gate 2 outcomes, which generation projects in the queue are ready and needed for 2030 and which are not.
At the same time, NESO will update its national and regional strategic plans, including the Beyond 2030 network plan refresh, to provide a coherent picture of future system needs. Key questions will need to be answered about how government ambitions, particularly around AI growth zones and strategic demand, will be integrated into connections reform and these strategic plans.
Meanwhile, as the electricity transmission and distribution networks transform, Ofgem faces critical decisions. Its Final Determinations for RIIO-T3 in December must strike the right balance of risk and reward, with Ofgem enabling investment needed at an acceptable cost. If the transmission companies consider that the final package is not investable or misaligned with delivery risk, they are highly likely to follow the example from the water sector and appeal to the CMA. At best this would be a distraction; more likely it will delay progress.
In parallel, DESNZ and the Department for Business and Trade are separately considering Ofgem’s duties and remit and the role of economic regulation. We hope to see progress on these by the end of this year and whether either will lead to sharper strategic direction to Ofgem through a revised Strategic Policy Statement.
To sustain and enhance investor confidence, these NESO, Ofgem and government actions will need to be coherent and well-coordinated.
We will soon learn whether key reforms and regulatory decisions are moving fast enough or whether delays from public opposition or legal challenge will slow delivery.
One key test will be how major transmission network upgrades like Sea Link and Norwich to Tilbury progress through the planning process. NESO has identified these projects, which submitted applications earlier in 2025, as critical to unlocking new generation and relieving constraints, to the tune of £4bn if accelerated and delivered in 2030.
While we do not expect final decisions until 2026, early signs of smooth progress or objections will be telling. If it is clear a judicial review will be brought, then government and Ofgem will need to address how resulting delays can be minimised.
Meanwhile, one of the less visible but highly consequential challenges on delivery at this scale is the physical reality that building more network requires more outages. This is already having impacts. For example, the high level of curtailment of the Seagreen windfarm in Scotland is exacerbated by outages over that transmission boundary.
To manage this, NESO and network operators are pursuing better coordination of outages. Upcoming consultations on system access and outage management must show signs of a more strategic, coordinated approach, one that avoids bottlenecks and enables concurrent delivery.
The affordability of the transition is now the central political and policy concern. In the months ahead, we will get a clearer view of whether clean energy can be delivered at a cost the public will accept, and whether government can develop alternative ways to reduce bills.
AR7 outcomes will be key. How much generation government can procure and at what cost will send a strong signal. If strike prices are high (given upward market pressures), and if gas prices fall, the government will face difficult questions about value for money of renewables.
Together with AR7 results, progress on generation and grid build-out will help forecast future constraint costs. Currently, NESO estimate that annual constraint costs could rise to £8bn by 2030, but this is halved if Norwich to Tilbury and Sea Link are delivered a year early. Progress we see will help refine the underlying assumptions and credibility of that forecast.
With Scottish and Welsh elections scheduled for May 2026, and Reform UK gaining support, the cost of the transition will remain front and centre in political debate. These elections are likely to coincide with headlines about rising energy bills, including a £100 increase projected from April 2026 due to network and nuclear costs.1 All this could create a perfect storm for Labour.
The next six months will expose the pace, cost and credibility of CP2030 and will do so in the context of increasingly fractious political debate around net zero and affordability.
There is a critical need for coordinated action across government, regulators, and industry with aligned approaches to the trade-offs between growth, security, decarbonisation and affordability.
Progress hinges on visible delivery and a clear affordability narrative. Without this, public support for the transition could be undermined, just at the wrong time for government.
This blog was written by Rebecca Barnett, Partner, and Victoria Low, Director, in the Flint Energy team. They help clients understand and manage political, policy and regulatory risks and opportunities faced by businesses operating in the energy sector. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss further.