Tomorrow’s market, today’s evidence: counterfactuals in the EU Draft Merger Guidelines

Flint experts Kah Loon Tham and Karla Perca López explore the EU's Draft Merger Guidelines in the August 2026 edition of the CPI Antitrust Chronicle.

Much of the debate on the EU's Draft Merger Guidelines has focused on whether Brussels is becoming more receptive to scale and innovation. Our experts look at a quieter but equally significant shift: how the counterfactual, the world without the merger, is assessed, and who bears the burden of proving it.

Our experts set out when the EC might depart from pre-merger conditions, explore six sector-specific counterfactuals in dynamic markets like AI and pharma, and outline practical steps for businesses looking to build a credible counterfactual case.

Read the full article here.

Competition Policy International, "Tomorrow's Market, Today's Evidence: Counterfactuals in the EU Draft Merger Guidelines," August 2026, Tomorrow's Market, Today's Evidence: Counterfactuals in the EU Draft Merger Guidelines.