How should Europe respond to Donald Trump’s election? 

Most governments in Europe had hoped for a Harris victory. Now that Donald Trump has won, they will reach out to him and seek common ground. But they have big concerns.  

The first is the future of US support for Ukraine, and for European security more broadly. Trump has threatened to cut assistance for Ukraine and seek a rapid negotiated settlement with Russia. It is not clear on what terms this might happen and with what political and security consequences for Ukraine. Beyond that, Trump will demand (with some justification) that the US security guarantee for Europe through NATO is conditional on higher and better European defence spending.  

European security may also be affected by the Trump administration’s Middle East policy, which is likely to give greater leeway to the Israeli government both in dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah and potentially in a more aggressive stance towards Iran. Europeans risk being sidelined.  

On trade, Trump has threatened an across-the-board tariff of 10% plus on European exports to the US.

A useful deep-dive on how Europe and the UK could respond is here: Trump tariffs: how could the EU and UK strike back.

If imposed, this would create political tension and provoke EU retaliation. A Trump administration will also pursue wider fiscal and industrial policies to support US business. The implications for Europe’s economy are potentially serious given the huge scale of Transatlantic trade. The EU is preparing targeted, responsive measures, with the goal of either deterring US action and provoking a negotiation or at least mitigating the impact.  

Trump’s threat to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese exports (and up to 200% on electric vehicles) will, if implemented, destabilize international trade patterns, raise geopolitical tension and put pressure on Europeans either to follow suit or pursue a visibly differentiated approach towards engagement with China that may incur US penalties.  

This blog explores how Trump-era trade policy reshapes global supply chains: The Trump effect: how US trade policy is reshaping global supply chains and competitiveness.

On climate policy, apart from assertively shifting domestic policy towards oil and gas, the Trump administration is likely once more to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, creating further complexity in already troubled international negotiations where Europe has tried to show leadership. A similarly unilateralist American approach can be expected in other multilateral fora.  

A further concern is that Trump’s victory in the US may increase the leverage of and support for populist parties in Europe at a time when the governments of Germany, France and other countries are vulnerable and major elections lie ahead.  

There is a risk that EU member states respond in an uncoordinated and self-interested way, with some leaders tempted by a direct, personal approach to secure bilateral deals with the US President. This would, for example, make it harder for the European Commission to prepare a response on trade that gives collective leverage in negotiation.   

Trump’s return is likely to restart the debate on European strategic autonomy, but this is not a short-term reality, even if the EU finds the will to do more and spend more on defence. The debate goes beyond defence and could also affect sectors such as tech and digital. Both Trump and Elon Musk have criticised the EU’s behaviour towards US big tech. The EU will seek to protect its tech sector from US dominance in key areas such as cloud and AI.  

For more context on what EU strategic autonomy really means for business, see: EU strategic autonomy: what is it, and why should we care?

For the UK, the US election result risks setting up a tension between two major pillars of the Labour government’s foreign policy – a strong relationship with America and a reset with the EU. If tensions between the EU and US mount, the UK may face tough choices. For example, attempts to secure unilateral carve-outs from tariffs or other measures could harm relations with the EU.  

These are serious challenges. Europeans have long been aware of them but have not adequately prepared. Rather than predicting catastrophe, the sensible response for European governments and businesses will be to reduce vulnerability where possible and engage in a clear, hard-headed and constructive way.  

This blog was written by Founding Partner Sir Simon Fraser. From 2010 to 2015, Simon was Head of the UK Foreign Office and Diplomatic Service. His experience includes leading the UK Department for Business (BIS) and being Chief of Staff to the EU Commissioner for Trade in Brussels. Simon is Chair of the Chatham House Council.