September State Elections in Germany: a watershed moment for the AfD? 

Elections for three state parliaments will be held across AfD heartlands – Keeping the AfD out of government will require difficult coalitions 

Three state elections will take place in September: Saxony-Anhalt on the 6^th, followed by Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the 20^th. Apart from Berlin, the AfD is leading the polls by a wide margin and may appoint the head of government in a federal state for the first time. 

Germany’s established parties have so far ruled out entering a coalition with the AfD, leaving it politically isolated despite its strong polling. In Berlin, a three-party coalition is likely, potentially led by either the left-populist Die Linke or the centre-right CDU, with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens as coalition partners.  

The situation is different in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD currently polls at around 36 and 42 per cent respectively. Depending on how many parties clear the 5 per cent threshold for entry into parliament, the AfD could secure a majority of seats, particularly in Saxony-Anhalt, or seek to form a minority government.  

Alternatively, governments led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU) in Saxony-Anhalt could continue. However, this would require some form of cooperation between the CDU and the Left Party, an option that remains highly controversial within the CDU.  

The AfD remains considerably more radical and politically isolated than comparable European parties 

Since its founding in 2012 as an anti-Euro party, the AfD has gone through successive shifts towards more radical positions. This distinguishes it from other successful non-mainstream parties in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, which have gradually moved towards centrist positions as they came closer to power.  

At federal level, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the AfD as a confirmed far-right extremist organisation (although legal challenges are ongoing). In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is similarly classified, while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it is being monitored.  

The AfD is also unusually isolated at the European level. In the European Parliament, it belongs to neither Patriots for Europe nor the European Conservatives and Reformists. Instead, it leads the smaller, marginal “Europe of Sovereign Nations” group. it remains decidedly pro-Russia and maintains positions that support Russia’s anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian narrative. 

No immediate political implications at federal level… 

The three federal states have a combined population of 7.4 million - less than 10% of Germany’s population. Their elections are nevertheless attracting significant national and international attention because an AfD win would set a historical precedent. 

The immediate impact on federal policymaking would be limited. In the Bundesrat (the second legislative chamber in which the states are represented) Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have 4 votes each, whilst Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has 3 out of a total of 65. CDU, SPD and Green governed states would therefore continue to hold a comfortable majority.  

An AfD-led government could nevertheless complicate cooperation between the federal states, particularly in areas such as education and domestic security. The latter could become especially sensitive if the AfD were in a position to appoint a state interior minister with authority over the policy and state Offices for the Protection of the Constitution.  

… but a fierce political challenge 

The broader political implications could be immense: 

• The Saxony-Anhalt election will be the first of the three. A strong AfD result could shape the dynamics of the other two elections, potentially mobilising support for the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Die Linke in Berlin. 

• More importantly, the results could place the CDU under considerable internal pressure. The party currently prohibits coalitions or similar forms of cooperation with both the AfD and Die Linke. The expected election results are already prompting debate within the CDU over whether this position remains sustainable. Either the election of an AfD Minister-President with only a few CDU votes or an agreement with the Left Party to sustain an alternative government would severly test the CDU party unity.  

• Chancellor Merz enters the state elections from a position of weakness. He faces growing criticism, including within his party’s own support base, over a lack of economic improvement, his decision to loosen fiscal constraints at the outset of the legislative term, perceived concessions to the SPD, and his handling of the recent cabinet reshuffle. 

• The situation is similarly challenging for the SPD. Its leaders Lars Klingbeil (Finance Minister) and Bärbel Bas (Labour and Social Affairs Minister) are also its most senior ministers, limiting the time they have to devote to the party. The SPD’s polling has deteriorated steadily, and concerns amongst the rank and file are growing. In Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD is polling only just above the 5 per cent threshold. Failure to enter the state parliament would be a catastrophic setback.  

The September elections will therefore also serve as a verdict on the federal government and its senior leadership. Poor results for the governing parties would further weaken Merz, Klingbeil and Bas and could materially constrain the government’s ability to pursue difficult reforms to pensions, long-term care and taxation. Such reforms require political authority and broad support within the governing parties, particularly where they impose costs on their own constituencies.  

Implications for investors  

For businesses and investors, three implications stand out: 

• First, an AfD-led state government could negatively affect perceptions of the relevant state as a location for investment and skilled workers. This could be particularly significant for companies dependent on internationally mobile talent.  

• Second, strong AfD results could exacerbate tensions within the CDU and SPD and further weaken the federal government’s ability to deliver reforms to taxation, pensions and long-term care, all intended to improve Germany’s economic competitiveness. 

• Third, the elections will be an important indicator of Germany’s broader political trajectory. A further weakening of Chancellor Merz and the governing parties, combined with continued AfD gains, could make the federal policymaking more difficult and increase uncertainty ahead of future elections.  

Companies and investors should therefore monitor developments closely. The Flint Germany team is on hand to provide further analysis and support. 

The Flint Global Germany team advises companies and investors across Germany and Europe on political, regulatory and competition issues, combining in-country expertise with a global perspective to help clients anticipate and navigate complex decision-making environments. 

Das Flint Global Germany Team berät Unternehmen und Investoren in Deutschland und Europa zu politischen und regulatorischen Herausforderungen. Unser Beratungsansatz verbindet fundierte lokale Expertise mit einer internationalen Perspektive. Wir unterstützen unsere Mandanten dabei, komplexe regulatorische Entwicklungen und politische Entscheidungsprozesse frühzeitig zu erkennen, einzuordnen und in klare Handlungsschritte zu übersetzen. 

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