Flint advises international businesses and investors on policy, politics, regulation and competition.
Flint advises international businesses and investors on policy, politics, regulation and competition.
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After several years of political turbulence and legislative inertia in the Netherlands, businesses and investors are longing for stability and a clearer policy direction in 2026. The October 2025 election suggests the public shares that ambition: voters turned away from far-right populism and shifted back towards the traditional centre, with D66 (liberal-progressive), VVD (liberal-conservative) and CDA (Christian Democratic) emerging as the key parties in cabinet formation.
On Friday 9 January, D66, CDA and VVD agreed to form a minority government. This is a highly unusual step in Dutch politics. A minority government emerged as the only viable path forward, as VVD blocked a centrist majority coalition with the Green-Labour alliance (GL-PvdA), while D66 opposed a centre-right government with the liberal-conservative JA21.
In the coming weeks, D66, CDA and VVD will continue to negotiate on a coalition agreement. Facing mounting domestic pressure to deliver and an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, the three parties are expected to prioritise speed. A new government is likely to be in place by late Q1 or early Q2 2026.
For businesses, the central question is what business risks and opportunities will follow. Substantively, a D66-CDA-VVD minority cabinet would start from a broadly pro-business platform. A negotiation paper drafted by D66 and CDA shortly after the election signalled higher public investment in R&D, stronger public-private cooperation in growth sectors, improved access to finance and a push to reduce regulatory burdens. The VVD would likely seek to expand that agenda further, putting an even clearer pro-business stamp on the coalition.
However, fiscal policy is the biggest source of uncertainty. Talks have been difficult over how to fund ambitions on defence, grid capacity and housing. While the parties converge on restraining healthcare and social security spending, sharp differences remain over how to raise additional funds. D66 and CDA lean towards higher wealth taxes and greater budgetary flexibility, whereas the VVD remains fiscally conservative and prioritises additional spending cuts. How this debate resolves will be an early indicator of how ambitious the government can be – and what financial burden it will place on businesses.
Once formed, a minority government must build parliamentary majorities issue by issue. This is likely to slow decision-making, reduce policy predictability, and increase the risk of political turbulence. However, the risk of paralysis or rapid government collapse should not be overstated. Across the mainstream parties, including those beyond D66, CDA and VVD, there is a strong awareness that the Netherlands needs to move beyond political stalemate and take concrete decisions, particularly in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.
For businesses, a minority government requires a different approach to political engagement. As it lacks a guaranteed majority for its plans, a minority government will make uncertainty a defining feature of 2026. At the same time, rigid policy lock-in is less likely than under a majority coalition. With fewer commitments fixed in a coalition agreement, there is more room to shape law and policy initiatives as these are negotiated in parliament. For companies that understand the process and engage strategically, that flexibility can translate into real impact.
The challenge for companies navigating Dutch politics in 2026 is therefore twofold: managing the risks that come with unpredictability, while identifying opportunities when policy is still in flux and outcomes can be shaped.
Flint Global is ready to be your partner in navigating the Dutch political landscape in 2026. We help businesses manage periods of political uncertainty and turn them into strategic advantage. In a minority-government context, insight and targeted engagement will be critical.
We work with clients to anticipate political risks, identify opportunities and engage effectively as policy is shaped in parliament. As Dutch politics enters a more fluid phase in 2026, we stand ready to support businesses seeking clarity, confidence and impact.
This blog was written by Partner, Arjen Leemburg, Senior Consultant, Renske Makkinga and Consultant, Tijmen Severens.