Caught in the middle: Europe faces a high-stakes sequence of summits 

Europe enters a dense sequence of summits over the next few weeks, including the G7, European Council, NATO summit and potentially an EU-UK summit, against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical and economic pressure. Managing relations with an increasingly embattled President Trump will be a recurring theme as tensions continue to simmer over Ukraine, Iran, trade, defence spending and regulatory disputes. Europe also faces growing pressure to respond more effectively to China’s economic and strategic influence.

Ukraine will remain at the centre of discussions, with European leaders seeking to keep the US engaged while accelerating efforts to strengthen Europe’s own defence capabilities. At the same time, conversations about how and when to re-engage with Russia are beginning to emerge. Across these debates, European governments are adopting a more assertive approach to reducing strategic dependencies and strengthening economic and security resilience, but divisions between member states continue to limit the pace and scope of collective action.

The broader picture is of a transatlantic relationship that remains functional but increasingly strained, an unpredictable US administration facing domestic and international pressures, and European leaders struggling to translate ambitions for greater strategic autonomy into coherent and effective common action. Over the coming weeks, the key question will be whether Europe can move beyond reactive crisis management and demonstrate greater unity in addressing challenges from the US, Russia and China.

G7 summit (France, 14-16 June) 

France’s G7 summit will be President Macron's last major international gathering before the end of his final term next year. 

The official agenda focuses on trade, economic resilience and supply chains. A key French objective is to strengthen coordination among G7 countries on economic security, particularly around critical minerals and other strategic supply chains. Macron is also expected to push for high-level commitments on online child protection, although any outcome is likely to be largely declaratory. 

In practice, the summit is likely to be dominated by efforts to manage relations with President Trump and prevent further damaging disagreements among G7 partners. European leaders are under pressure on Iran, where the Trump administration believes they have not done enough to support US objectives. 

The UK will assume the G7 presidency next year, providing an opportunity for continuity on key priorities. While tensions with Trump have reduced the G7's effectiveness compared with the Biden era, there remain areas of shared interest, particularly on economic security and supply chain resilience, where meaningful coordination among G7 partners is still possible. 

European Council (Brussels, 18-19 June) 

The European Council's agenda will be dominated by international issues, including Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and relations with China. Leaders will also continue discussions on the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and on the implementation of the Draghi report on economic competitiveness. Ireland will take over the EU Council presidency from Cyprus on 1 July. 

While not officially on the agenda, China will feature prominently. Leaders will discuss strengthening the EU’s response to China's trade and economic practices, including a possible new instrument targeting industrial overcapacity proposed by the Commission. Maintaining pressure on China's support for Russia's war effort will also be a priority, as the EU considers further sanctions, including measures targeting Chinese entities. 

Domestic political dynamics will shape the discussions. This will be Peter Magyar's first European Council following his election victory in Hungary, potentially easing consensus-building on issues such as Ukraine. However, the EU's traditional driving forces, Germany and France, are politically constrained. Merz faces declining domestic support, while France is in a period of political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election. There is unhappiness among some Member States about over-reach by Commission President von der Leyen. 

Defence will be another key theme ahead of the NATO summit. Leaders will seek to demonstrate progress on defence spending commitments and capability development. A second iteration of the SAFE programme is under discussion, with a potential focus on drones, air and missile defence, and other critical capability gaps. 

NATO summit (Turkey, 7-8 July) 

The NATO summit is likely to be the most consequential meeting of the summer from a European perspective. The US will press hard on delivering defence expenditure commitments, which could be divisive between European allies. Some allies are in the line of fire, notably Spain and Germany, for their stance on the conflict in the Middle East. 

On Ukraine, European countries are working to finalise a $70 billion package to be announced at the summit, combining existing EU commitments with new bilateral funding. Ukraine's recent successes against Russia may help build momentum for agreement. In parallel, European capitals have begun discussing how and when to re-engage with Putin, including through the appointment of a Special Envoy, with the aim of securing a seat at what remains a largely hypothetical negotiating table. 

Concerns around the US military posture and troop levels in Europe remain. Marco Rubio’s softer stance has done little to dispel broader questions about the reliability of US extended deterrence. As a result, support for accelerated European rearmament remains strong across much of the continent.  

There is still  potential for a renewed crisis over Greenland with Trump arguing that some European allies are unwilling or unable to contribute sufficiently to Western security objectives, and hence the need for stronger US control over the territory. There is also a real possibility that Trump will seek to hijack the whole agenda through controversial action elsewhere, for example Cuba.  

EU-UK summit (Brussels, 13 July TBC) 

The EU and the UK committed to holding annual summits following the "reset" summit in London last year. However, negotiations have remained difficult across a range of issues, raising questions about whether the summit will proceed as planned.  

Key sticking points include food and agricultural standards and carbon emissions trading, with the UK expressing concern that the consultation arrangements proposed by the EU fall short of those secured by Switzerland. The EU is also pushing for safeguards to ensure the durability of UK commitments in the event of future political change. Youth mobility remains another sensitive issue, with disagreement over whether EU students should benefit from reduced tuition fees in the UK. 

While significant progress may prove elusive in the short term, the medium- to long-term trajectory remains towards a more pragmatic EU-UK relationship focused on defence, economic security, energy cooperation and reducing trade frictions. Progress is  likely to remain incremental. If the summit takes place, it is more likely to deliver practical cooperation in specific sectors than any dramatic breakthrough. 

The overall picture this summer is of a Transatlantic alliance still functioning but under significant stress, an unpredictable US President who is on the back foot at home and abroad, and Europeans struggling to turn the ambition for greater autonomy into effective common action. 

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