NATO’s Ankara summit: where next for the Alliance?  

The 7-8 July 2026 NATO Summit took place in a markedly different geopolitical environment from last year’s summit. Within the span of the last year, the US has held a wartime summit with the Russian President in Anchorage, threatened the territorial integrity of Denmark through claims on Greenland, and launched a war against Iran that saw NATO’s European members refuse the US airspace access to offensive Iran-bound tankers and bombers.  

In the same timeframe, an exhausted Ukraine reaped the benefits of its homegrown innovation in drone warfare to launch a bombing campaign that has – at the time of writing – resulted in lasting damage to 8 of Russia’s 10 largest oil refineries, forcing the cessation of diesel exports and the implementation of a fuel rationing regime across the country.  

Finally, the European Union launched multiple defence funding instruments for its member states, including €150bn in Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans supporting primarily-EU joint defence procurement, alongside a €90bn Ukraine Support Loan favouring purchases from European companies. Following NATO members’ commitment to spending 5% of their GDP on defence at the Hague Summit in 2025, Poland has led the way spending 4.3%, with eight allies in total currently spending above 3%.  

Key outcomes of the Ankara Summit 

The Alliance aims to translate higher defence budgets into military capabilities and industrial output. Building on the defence investment commitments agreed at the 2025 Hague Summit, NATO Allies used Ankara as a platform to announce more than $50 billion in new procurement contracts, alongside further commitments to expand defence manufacturing capacity, accelerate innovation, and remove barriers to defence industrial cooperation. Major announcements during this summit include multinational procurement of surveillance aircraft, investments in drone capabilities, fuel infrastructure and industrial production.  

NATO countries attempted to project unity despite underlying tensions. Concerns ahead of the Summit and tensions over Greenland, Spain, and burden-sharing, did not escalate politically. Leaders from Allied countries reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 and collective defence. The joint declaration also formalises the ongoing rebalancing of NATO, with European Allies and Canada assuming greater responsibility for the Alliance’s defence and deterrence posture alongside the US.  

What does NATO's future really look like? 

he summit marks another step in the gradual rebalancing of responsibilities within NATO. The question is no longer whether European allies should assume greater responsibility for the Alliance's defence, but how that responsibility will be translated into military capability and industrial capacity. The 2026 declaration devotes an entire subparagraph to the idea of a stronger Europe within a stronger NATO, highlighting what this could mean for the future of the Alliance.  

The direction taken by several European countries in recent years illustrates the growing European role in defence and, ultimately, within NATO. Together, these developments reflect a broader trend towards a stronger European contribution to the Alliance's collective defence. 

Germany 

From Berlin’s perspective, the outcome of the NATO Summit in Ankara is widely seen as positive, despite President Trump’s earlier criticism. Ahead of the summit, Berlin reaffirmed its commitment to NATO by announcing record defence spending of €124.7 billion for 2026 (2.69% of GDP) and its goal of reaching 3.5% in the medium term. Germany also pledged to assume a greater share of NATO capabilities if the US reduces its military presence, including by providing additional frigates, drones, P-8 aircraft and Eurofighter jets. Germany also helped secure an additional €70 billion support package for Ukraine. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the commitments send a clear signal to Moscow and reaffirm that Russia will not achieve its war aims.  

In a Bundestag statement on 9 July, Merz described the agreement to acquire US Tomahawk cruise missiles as a major success. The missiles are expected to fill a key long-range strike capability gap while Germany continues developing European alternatives, although delivery timelines remain uncertain. Germany's pledge to further increase defence spending and capabilities underscores the direction it has taken in recent years, placing defence at the centre of its domestic political agenda. 

France 

President Emmanuel Macron has presented the NATO summit in Ankara as validation of a long-standing French argument: that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defence and build stronger military capabilities, not simply in response to US pressure but as a matter of strategic autonomy.  

France's updated 2024-2030 Military Programming Law (LPM), adopted by the National Assembly on 1 July, increases planned defence spending to €436 billion, which Macron says will roughly double the defence budget over a decade and raise spending towards 2.5% of GDP. He coupled this with renewed calls to prioritise European defence industries, highlighting programmes such as the Rafale fighter aircraft, the SAMP/T air-defence system and the Franco-German JEWELS strike programme.  

France is also reportedly reconsidering its long-standing opposition to exporting the SAMP/T air-defence system to Turkey following discussions between Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. While no agreement has yet been reached, even a limited easing of French reservations would mark a shift after years of political tensions and could reopen the prospect of a major contract for MBDA and Thales. 

Poland 

Finally, in the context of the war in Ukraine, Poland is increasingly assuming greater responsibility within NATO. The country is currently the Alliance's highest defence spender relative to GDP, allocating 4.48% to defence in 2025, ahead of the United States with an estimated 3.22%. Beyond its financial commitments, Poland has also positioned itself as a key actor in shaping Europe's contribution to regional security.  

Within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing, Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently announced that Poland will host international military exercises later this year to prepare participating countries to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement or ceasefire with Russia. He further stated that Poland is prepared to host troops from allied countries. These initiatives reflect Poland's ambition to become a central pillar of NATO's eastern flank while supporting Europe's efforts to assume greater responsibility for the continent's security.  

The defence industrial dilemma 

Despite the shift toward a more "Europeanised" alliance, the Summit exposed tensions in the transatlantic defence relationship. While Washington has long urged European allies to assume greater responsibility within NATO, it also expects to benefit economically from Europe's defence rearmament. The US is determined to maintain a strong share of the expanding European defence market. 

This dynamic was evident at the summit, where the US secured several major defence deals. President Trump welcomed higher NATO defence spending, noting that "much of that money is being spent on American-made equipment." NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reinforced this message, arguing that Europe's increased defence investment would also create significant opportunities for US industry and encouraging Trump to "grab the win" from the estimated $1.2 trillion increase in allied defence spending. 

At the same time, Washington continued to push back against EU efforts to strengthen defence industrial autonomy. Proposed "Made in Europe" procurement rules and the forthcoming revision of the EU Defence Procurement Directive have drawn criticism from US officials seeking to preserve market access. Likewise, the European Commission's Defence Single Market Communication, originally expected before the Summit, was postponed indefinitely, probably to avoid adding to transatlantic tensions. 

The summit therefore highlighted a broader strategic dilemma: can Europe assume greater responsibility for its own security while remaining heavily dependent on the US for critical military capabilities and defence industry? Although European governments agree that defence will remain a priority and that NATO will continue to underpin collective security, they must balance preserving the transatlantic partnership with strengthening Europe's own industrial resilience and strategic autonomy. 

Achieving this balance will be challenging. Divisions among EU Member States over procurement, industrial policy and strategic priorities remain significant. Before Europe can redefine its role within NATO, the EU will need greater consensus on its defence ambitions, investment priorities and long-term role within the Alliance.  

What this means for business and investors 

For companies, the ongoing debate around European preference criteria is already having, and will continue to have, a significant impact on business models and investment decisions. The key question of the upcoming months is how far it will go, and which sectors and procurement programmes it will ultimately cover.  

While there is a clear political direction towards strengthening the European defence industrial base, the practical application of these principles remains uncertain. Exact scope of coverage, how much flexibility will be allowed for third-country participation, and how the different EU instruments will interact remain to be decided.  

This regulatory uncertainty complicates long-term strategic planning for companies, which require visibility to make investment, production and partnership decisions. Anticipating the direction of these discussions, and the successive changes made throughout the legislative process, will be critical for identifying market opportunities, assessing regulatory risks and making informed investment decisions. 

If you would like to discuss these issues further, please get in touch with our experts.

Enjoyed this blog? Sign up for our Defence monthly newsletter for analysis of the political, policy and regulatory developments shaping the defence sector.