Welcome to the first of Flint Global’s Frontiers of Trade series. We’re taking the opportunity to look beyond the current issues dominating the current trading environment, well known as tariffs and geopolitical tensions are, to look at what questions businesses will need to be thinking about in the next twenty years. Our first blog questions […]
The European Commission’s proposed AGILE instrument is designed to accelerate the deployment of disruptive defence technologies from European start-ups and SMEs. With €115 million allocated through to 2027 and compressed timelines (four to eight months from proposal to award), it is explicitly modelled on the pace of wartime innovation seen in Ukraine. But AGILE is not a step-change in EU defence […]
This month has seen the launch of TrumpRx – the US Government’s new direct-to-consumer platform with the stated aim of delivering ‘most favoured nation’ drug prices to the US after decades in which Americans paid much more for its medicines than most of the rest of the world. US drug pricing continues to be a […]
Since the publication of the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) in June 2025, the UK Government has increasingly framed defence policy in urgent terms: warfighting readiness, industrial mobilisation, and national resilience. Ministers have been explicit that deterrence is no longer a distant planning assumption, but an immediate operational requirement. However, implementation is now running into constraints […]
2025 reshaped the global trading environment. The first year of President Trump’s second term triggered the sharpest rise in US tariffs in decades, forced companies to re-price supply chains in real time, and accelerated a wider shift towards politically managed trade. 2026 will not repeat the shock of 2025, but it will consolidate it. Tariffs and other trade barriers are now […]
It is tempting to hope that after a period of intense geopolitical and trade turbulence, the dust is finally settling. But this would be a dangerous assumption to make. While the pace of headline tariff announcements may have slowed, the financial risks and opportunities created by the changing global trade landscape are just beginning to […]
This blog was originally published on 31 July and updated on 4 August. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has now been postponed to 7 August. The US Executive Order confirms that the EU’s 15% tariff encompasses Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) rates. Although Japanese officials had suggested a comparable arrangement for Japan, the Executive Order does not […]
To understand how shifts in US trade policy under Trump could reshape global supply chains and competitiveness, read our blog ‘The Trump effect: how US trade policy is reshaping global supply chains and competitiveness’: Scenarios We consider three scenarios of new US tariffs, their probability, how they would impact exports to the US, and second-order […]
Last year, the European Union (EU) adopted the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a landmark legislative initiative designed to curb the import and sale of goods linked to deforestation. The EUDR targets soy, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa, and coffee, as well as their derived products. Exporting countries will be categorised by deforestation risk levels, and businesses […]
With the race for the White House currently neck and neck, the possibility of a second Trump presidency should be treated seriously by businesses. Trade is a central pillar of Trump’s Presidential campaign, where his rhetoric has focused on protecting U.S. domestic economic capabilities and jobs by restricting foreign access to the U.S. market and […]
Donald Trump is at present polling marginally ahead of Joe Biden. It is too close to call at this distance, and events between now and November will continue to shape the outcome. However, a second Trump term is obviously a realistic prospect. Here we consider ten things global businesses should be thinking about. 1. Good […]
Overview The UK’s new post-Brexit subsidy control regime sits against a backdrop of governments across developed economies pursuing more active industrial policy. The UK’s trade partners, most notably the EU, are watching its subsidy regime and decisions closely. There is significant domestic scrutiny too. Those responsible for scrutinising public spending, such as the National Audit […]
2024 will be a critical year for the auto sector, with political choices shaping the direction of travel on trade, decarbonisation and supply chain security. Trends in the UK and overseas The UK auto sector bounced back in 2023. Production rose by 17% to 905,000 (80% exported), with equally strong growth in engines and commercial […]
In March 2018, when President Trump slapped a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel, the EU quickly followed suit. The EU’s rationale for copying the US, despite criticising Trump’s original action, was to safeguard against the risk that steel originally destined for America would be deflected onto the European market. When a large economy […]
Managing Partner Simon Fraser is joined by guest speaker Sir Lawrence Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London) alongside Flint Specialist Partner Sir Julian King (UK EU Commissioner 2016-19) and Partner Sam Lowe (expert in UK and EU trade policy) to take stock of where things stand and discuss how the conflict in Ukraine may evolve in its second year. You […]
Last year the West hit Russia with debilitating trade and financial sanctions in response to its invasion of Ukraine, the US attempted to hobble Chinese technological advancement by introducing new export controls on high-end semiconductors and the tools used to make them, and governments all over considered policies designed to forcefully reorientate, onshore, and ‘friend-shore’ […]
Moving goods, services, data, and staff internationally has never been easy. Trade wars, Brexit, a global pandemic, sanctions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made doing so all the more difficult. Beyond reacting to external pressures, companies and investors should be gearing up to adapt to, and take advantage of, imminent UK and EU regulatory changes […]
Post-Brexit, the best job in the UK government was that of trade secretary. While other ministers dealt with the Brexit fallout, or were tasked with tackling Covid-19, then trade chief, Liz Truss, was filling up her trophy cabinet. EU trade deals were rolled over, repackaged, and celebrated by the domestic press. New free trade agreements […]
We asked some of Flint’s experts for their take on the wider and longer-term impacts of the Ukraine crisis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on energy prices and security, spurring Western countries to cut or reduce their reliance on Russian gas. This has long-term implications for the energy sector. Nations are scrambling […]
Our latest podcast is out! The situation in Ukraine is unfolding rapidly. Listen to Simon Fraser, Julian King, Gregor Kreuzhuber and Sam Lowe discuss what the implications of the war and sanctions will be for business: The Flint Podcast.
Lord Frost’s hard line on re-negotiating the Northern Ireland Protocol has won some flexibility from the EU. But talks have stalled amid an exchange of threats. The Prime Minister will need to decide what best serves his political interest: a possible trade war with the EU in the run up to Christmas, or a negotiated […]
Flint Partner Sam Lowe says “The EU has been pressuring the U.K. to put tariffs on Chinese EVs for a while — it was always likely the U.K. would need to align if it wants progress on issues such as ‘Made in Europe’ or the end-of-year rules-of-origin cliff edge.”
Flint Global's Sam Lowe examines the impact of Brexit on UK trade and the economic trade-offs of leaving the European Union. Drawing on his expertise in trade policy and market access, the discussion explores the evidence on how Brexit has affected UK trade flows, the opportunities created by an independent trade policy, and whether the […]
In this op-ed for The House Magazine, Kathryn Watson and Sam Lowe examine the economics of the UK-EU reset and the evolving relationship between London and Brussels. The piece explores the political and economic dynamics shaping discussions around closer cooperation between the UK and EU in the post-Brexit era.
“What we’re actually asking for is the EU to recognise our dynamic alignment, and in doing so, treat our exporters better.” Read Sam Lowe discussing the UK EU agriculture deal.
Read an article written by Flint Partner and trade expert Sam Lowe for The Financial Times on President Trump's recent tarrifs on imported pharmaceutical products and what this means.
Flint experts Sam Lowe and Viktor Jenčuš examine the EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act and its “Made in Europe” approach in the Encompass Europe.
“At the moment, we have no clarity on whether the 10% tariff agreed will be honored — but until and unless the U.S. gives a steer, we’ve got to assume it’s 15%,”
"These instruments are not as broad and wide-ranging as IEEPA and there is a chance that there is a gap in both timing and scope of newly imposed tariffs compared to the struck-down IEEPA tariffs."
"It will be difficult for them to take measures that could harm the United States, simply because of scale, and any action taken by the country against the United States could have economic consequences at the national level."
"We are not in a particularly strong position when it comes to making threats. the US is not very reliant on the UK for anything." Flint Partner Sam Lowe on President Trump's Greenland tariffs.
“While everyone describes it as a battery sourcing issue, the main challenge is getting hold of locally sourced active cathode material. At the moment there isn’t enough supply in the EU or UK. Without it, most EVs will struggle to qualify for zero tariffs under the rules of origin changes.”
Flint's blog 'The Trump tariff shock: What next?', referenced in the Financial Times. In this blog, Flint experts Kathryn Watson, Sam Lowe and Will Haworth unpack what’s coming next for global trade.
“In essence, it can reduce the costs and admin associated with doing trade, but it has very little impact on the friction experienced by traders at the border.”
“First and foremost they’re attempts to mitigate the excesses of the Trump administration trade policy and they’ll work until they don’t. At which point you’ll have to do something different,”
“At a headline level, Greenland makes a lot of sense as a diversification play due to its wealth of natural resources, but in practice, the cost associated with extracting these, both financial and environmental, remains prohibitively high in most instances.”
“In the medium term, [tariff revenue] is likely to grow. Different tariffs have come online at different parts of the year, and there is still possibly more to come.”
"Depending on the quota size that was on offer, the government will be able to argue that an average tariff rate applied to UK exports of 25 per cent will end up being lower than a zero per cent tariff applied to a small volume of exports and then 50 per cent to everything else,”.
“Ensuring you only need one type approval for the entire European market is a cost saver for anyone selling across all the different countries even if the UK for example had a distinct, better or more simple, regulation."
“For it to be meaningful for the UK, the EU would need to agree to incorporate the PEM rules of origin into the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. This gives the EU de facto blocking powers,” said Sam Lowe.
“There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding when the U.S. will bring into force the automotive tariff-rate quota, and what the rules of origin requirements for accessing it will be,” said Sam Lowe.
“The risk from the UK side is that the Trump administration will be focused on fighting domestically and that could delay implementation of the deal.” Partner Sam Lowe tells the FT.
“Whereas the option of retaliation was not really available to the UK due to its much smaller economy, the EU can inflict some damage on the US via tariffs and other measures,” said Partner Sam to Bloomberg.
Partner Sam Lowe tells Gary Gibbon, "ultimately, a trade agreement with India is a good thing and the fact that the UK has got in before a lot of other countries [...] gives us first-mover advantage."
“It’s very difficult to have sympathy with any argument that is based on the premise that the US has uniquely lost out to the global trading system it created,” said Sam Lowe, a trade and market access expert, “given that it is the largest, richest, most successful economy on Earth.”
Partner Sam Lowe tells the FT that an area of possible tension between the US and UK is if companies relocated production to the UK to take advantage of better trading conditions with the US.
"Post-Brexit arrangements mean Northern Ireland could be acutely impacted by US tariffs. Whether Keir Starmer can sort it out will depend largely on how much Donald Trump cares about the issue."
Partner Sam Lowe tells Bloomberg that "firms will have to pay much greater attention to the origin of the products they are exporting to the US," regarding pharmaceuticals.
Flint Partner and Trade expert Sam Lowe was quoted in the FT. “The challenge for the UK government will be limiting the discussions to areas of mutual interest or where concessions won’t be too painful,”
Partner Sam Lowe tells Channel 4 "[...] we're not talking about a standard free trade agreement in which the UK or the EU agree to remove some tariffs and the US does the same [...]"
“There is a theory that we’re going to be buying all this American equipment anyway. Can’t we just package it up and put a big number on it? And if that works, brilliant,”
"I think it's quite plausible that Donald Trump tells the UK to impose new tariffs or trade restrictions on China in return for concessions from the U.S.," he said. "And that will put the UK in a bind, undoubtedly."
Partner Sam Lowe tells The Times, “the big risk is that you just have escalation, the US introduces tariffs and the UK and the EU respond by introducing their own tariffs."
Partner Sam Lowe tells the FT “This linkage seems to have been forgotten by some people, but there is a real risk that a row over fishing rights comes in and torpedoes all the good will,”
“While the UK government and industry are currently publicly reluctant to replicate the EU measures, this will probably change once China-originating cars originally destined for the EU turn up in observable quantities on British driveways”
Partner Sam Lowe told The Times, “Over time, the risk grows that maybe more nefarious elements in the EU food-production system know there are not any inspections of the UK’s border, and that it would be much harder for the UK authorities to hold them accountable [relative to when the UK was an EU member]. […]
Partner Sam Lowe says to the FT "Canadians don't want to import any foreign cheese: Brits don't want to change their food standards to facilitate the import of Canadian beef."
In the FT article, UK SMEs not ready for ‘avalanche’ of Brexit 2.0 rules and taxes, partner Sam Lowe said: “unless there is significant UK-EU reintegration, then businesses will have to adjust to the fact that trade across the Channel is going to get increasingly difficult”
Partner Sam Lowe was quoted in Sky's article outlining that a UK-India trade deal is not set in stone. Lowe says "the negotiations are in a holding pattern at the moment, and what's probably required now is senior political intervention from Sunak and Modi to change the red lines..."
Partner Sam Lowe talks on BBC Newsnight about the current delays and red tape about EU food imports. "It's going to become even harder for businesses to prepare for the next iteration, the next deadline because they've been marched at this hill so many times..." Listen from 04:27.
“The US isn’t really interested in doing free trade agreements with anyone at the moment” Flint Partner and Trade Expert Sam Lowe on BBC Newsnight on 8th June 2023 [watch from minute 8:00]
Partner Sam Lowe stated to the FT that the "EU will agree to some form of extension" because a "scenario in which combustion engine cars can trade tariff-free, but EVs cannot is absurd [...]".
Partner Sam Lowe was quoted in Politico on UK's CPTPP membership, he said “Members were quite keen on the U.K. being first [to join], and there being a quite vigorous and rigorous accession process with minimum flexibility offered, to set a high benchmark that potential future members will have to clear — potentially one that […]
“CPTPP membership does make it more difficult for UK to rejoin EU customs union. But, given the UK will seemingly join without significant changes to EU-inherited regulations, it also demonstrates that EU and CPTPP regulatory approaches are compatible.”
“The deal requires the relationship between the U.K. and the EU to continue to be positive, and for both to do the things that they say they are going to do,” said Sam Lowe to Politico.
Partner Sam Lowe tells the Financial Times "there was a suspicion that the US, which was pushing Sunak to strike a Brexit deal with the EU, may have put pressure on CPTPP members to raise their concerns".
“The reality is that we increased supply-side barriers for British businesses looking to operate in the European market. So, for those businesses continuing to trade with the EU, those costs have increased, while some smaller businesses have just stopped working with the EU at all because it’s too complicated and expensive".
“It’s not in the U.K.’s interest for the U.S. and EU to go down this route,” said Sam Lowe, a partner at Flint Global and expert in U.K. and EU trade policy. “Given the U.K.’s current economic position, it can’t really afford to engage in a subsidy war with both.”
Partner Sam Lowe gives evidence to the UK Parliament’s EU Scrutiny Committee on the potential impact of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK regulatory autonomy.
How does the EU respond to Joe Biden’s $369bn green subsidies bill? Flint Partner Sam Lowe is quoted on whether the WTO would get involved if talks fail to bear fruit.
This September we welcome six new Partners to Flint, further building our senior team in France, Brussels and London and expanding our services to clients. Anne-Juliette Rohrbach joins as a Partner to launch and lead Flint’s new permanent office in Paris. Anne-Juliette is an expert in French policy and regulation with 15 years’ experience […]
With effect from 1 September, six members of the Flint team have been promoted. Warm congratulations to Sam Lowe, who has been promoted to Partner leading our trade and market access practice, Anna Abela, Franziska Kohler and Stef Lehmann, who have been promoted to Director, and Claudia Catelin and Matteo Panizzardi who become Managers. This is well […]
“The Trade Remedies Authority was set up to be pure and rational and pro-liberalisation, but the domestic political economy has got in the way of that vision.” Flint trade expert Sam Lowe was quoted in the Financial Times.
"It would make more sense for the UK to commit long-term to an approach that, unless there is a good reason, allows for EU CE markings to be sufficient for products placed on the UK market" Flint trade expert Sam Lowe quoted in the FT
"Our own independent body has found there is no economic thus no legal justification for doing so" Flint trade expert Sam Lowe, spoke to BBC World at One on the 16th of June about how the UK's tariff on Chinese Steel relates to Lord Geidts resignation. Listen from 24 minutes.
“What the UK is proposing is that all goods entering Northern Ireland should be treated like they are going to stay there unless there is a good reason that they might move onwards to Ireland and the rest of the EU” @SamuelMarcLowe, on @BBCRadio4 (37.21):
“It points to the direction of travel we’re heading in,” “I suspect we’re going to see more of this type of thing to ensure countries play by the rules – or the rules as the US sees them.”
"Under the protocol, imports subject to EU trade defence measures will always be subject to the EU tariff, even if they remain in Northern Ireland," he said. "This means there will be circumstances in which high trade defence tariffs are applied to imports into NI but not to imports into the rest of the UK. […]
“In the next 10 years the UK will probably have one of the most efficient borders in the world out of sheer necessity, which you could say is a ‘Brexit dividend’ of sorts,” Flint Director of Trade Sam Lowe quoted in the Financial Times.
The conflict with Iran is entering a more dangerous and unpredictable phase, with consequences extending far beyond the Middle East. In this episode, Flint experts assess how the crisis could evolve in the short to medium term, the prospects for leadership and governance in Iran, and the implications for global trade and the wider economy.
23 Sep, 2025
Trade under Trump: tariffs, trade agreements and what comes next
President Trump has followed through on the trade agenda he laid out at the start of his term, seeking to “rebalance” global trade in favour of the United States. On 7 August, a global regime of reciprocal tariffs came into force, marking a dramatic shift in the trade landscape. Alongside this, the administration has imposed […]
On Wednesday, 2 April, President Trump announced a baseline tariff of 10% on all US imports with specific tariffs for individual markets. Some of the highest rates were imposed on Asian jurisdictions. Countries across APAC have responded in a variety of ways: China has imposed retaliatory tariffs, Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs, and […]
In this podcast, our experts take stock of Trump’s first month in office and discuss the implications for the US’s political, security and economic relationships around the world. The Trump Administration has moved quickly, making a range of announcements about domestic policy, deregulation, tariffs, and foreign affairs. Even if this momentum slows, it is clear […]
Managing Partner Simon Fraser is joined by guest speaker Sir Lawrence Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London) alongside Flint Specialist Partner Sir Julian King (UK EU Commissioner 2016-19) and Partner Sam Lowe (expert in UK and EU trade policy) to take stock of where things stand and discuss how the conflict in Ukraine may evolve in its second year. You […]
