Geopolitical analysis and horizon scanning

We apply our geopolitical analysis to the challenges faced by our clients, helping them identify risks and opportunities, make informed decisions and engage effectively with governments.

The geopolitical environment is changing fast and has become more uncertain, with rising tensions between major powers – the US, China, Russia and the EU. Global governance has become weaker, with recent years seeing increased protectionism, unresolved trade disputes leading to spiralling retaliation, tighter restrictions on investment, greater tensions around regulatory control, more state intervention in the economy, and a high degree of unpredictability. All of this has direct consequences for businesses.

Flint’s approach

We do applied geopolitics, helping our clients to make sense of key international developments and how they affect the environment in which they operate. Our team has direct experience of diplomacy and foreign affairs at the highest levels of government.

Geopolitical analysis and intelligence:
We decode the relevance of key geopolitical developments and flashpoints, telling you what matters for your organisation and allowing you to anticipate major events and their ramifications.
Horizon scanning:
We use our geopolitical expertise to map out the geopolitical risks affecting corporates and investors. We provide recommendations both to identify opportunities for clients and help increase the resilience of their businesses.
Country-specific analysis:
Businesses face an increasingly unstable political environment in almost all geographies. We analyse developments in Europe, the US and Asia and the associated political and operational risks.
Sector-specific analysis:
The dynamics of key relationships between major powers – US-China, EU-China, EU-US – have an increased influence on how governments regulate sectors such as digital, energy and financial services. We bring our geopolitical expertise to anticipate key regulatory developments.

Case studies

Country-risk analysis
Country-risk analysis
A major financial services company asked for an assessment of the geopolitical and supply chain risks in four countries – Mexico, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam – to inform its choice about where it would build manufacturing facilities for a new product.
  • Flint provided an overview of the domestic political situation, as well as regional and geopolitical outlook in the following countries, applied to the financial services and manufacturing sectors.
  • We ranked the four countries based on their risk level, particularly looking at political and geopolitical risks, as well as trade and supply chain risks.
  • Our cross-cutting approach highlighted unforeseen risks in the four jurisdictions, enhancing the companies’ understanding of the risks faced in these countries.
  • Flint's advice informed the company’s decision to invest in one of the geographies, ruling out some countries given the increased risks.
Ukraine’s impact on the aviation sector
Ukraine’s impact on the aviation sector
A major international airline needed advice on the impact of the war in Ukraine on their business.
They asked for an analysis of the situation on the ground, the response from Western countries (incl. sanctions) and the short- and medium-term scenarios.
  • Flint advised the airline on the implications of the crisis on the aviation sector, including the impact on aviation fuels.
  • We also provided insights on the potential trade implications and their spillover effects on travel (business and leisure).
  • Flint's advice helped the Board to prioritise risk and focus resources on the most immediate challenges to their commercial position.
  • Flint assisted the business with a specific sanctions issue that presented a significant commercial challenge and posed a reputational risk.
Impact of geopolitical risk on trade | Ukraine crisis
Impact of geopolitical risk on trade | Ukraine crisis
A major global investor wanted to understand the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global trade and supply chains to sense check their investment hypothesis and scope new opportunities.
  • Drawing on the latest data and information, we provided a detailed assessment of the first, second and third-order impacts of the invasion on global trade and supply chains.
  • Produced specific insights on the probable impact of the conflict on a range of industries such as food, semiconductors, defence and electric vehicles.
  • Presented our assessment in an easily digestible format, with a focus on commercially relevant detail.
  • Our analysis was used by the client’s investment committee to inform its decision-making.
  • The investor was able to sense check their internal assumptions against our assessment of the possible trade impact of the conflict.
  • We gave the investor a competitive edge by accurately identifying a number of second and third-order impacts of the conflict, prior to them becoming part of the public discussion.

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Insights

Our experts

Sir Simon Fraser

Sir Simon supports clients on policy, political and regulatory issues in the UK and Europe.

Julian King

Julian advises clients on political, policy and regulatory issues in the UK and across Europe.

Alex White

Alex leads Flint’s investor services work.

Thomas Matussek

Thomas is based in Berlin and advises companies on German and European political and regulatory developments.

Claus Grube

Claus supports clients on national politics in Nordic countries, policies & regulatory issues in the EU/Nordic region.

Bruno Maçães

Bruno advises clients in the tech, life sciences and financial services sectors on EU political issues and policy.

François-Joseph Schichan

François-Joseph advises clients on EU political and policy developments across a range of sectors.

Katie Whitting

Katie advises clients on policy and political issues with a focus on national security, investment and geopolitics.

Zoe Alipranti

Zoe advises clients on climate and sustainability issues, mainly in infrastructure and financial services.

Felix Peckham

Felix advises clients on UK political issues and policy analysis.

Let’s discuss

We will be delighted to discuss how Flint could support you and tailor our services to help you deliver commercial success in this area.
Contact our experts
Case Study Title
Challenge
A late change to an incoming prudential regime resulted in a client’s international operations being brought in scope, meaning the client would be required to hold significant additional capital. The client needed support to consider the options and make a decision about how best to mitigate the impact of this.
What Flint Did
Outcome
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