Geopolitics advisory

We apply our geopolitical analysis to the challenges faced by our clients, helping them identify risks and opportunities, make informed decisions and engage effectively with governments.

Governments around the world are responding to rising geopolitical competition by intervening in the market in forceful ways, both to weaken perceived adversaries and to strengthen their own resilience and advantage. As a result, businesses are increasingly finding themselves on the front line and geopolitics is having a material impact on them, both in terms of risks and opportunities.

We support businesses to understand and deal with the direct and downstream consequences of geopolitics. We apply the macro to the micro – providing targeted, commercially driven advice to help our clients identify risks, ensure the resilience of their business model, deploy capital and people in a way that maximises value, and protect their reputation. 

Flint’s approach

We believe that what matters for business is understanding how big-picture global politics directly affects them, and the decisions they must make now about the future. Our team is made up of experts and former practitioners who have deep experience across Europe, Asia and the US, and have worked at senior levels at the heart of governments and international organisations.

Horizon scanning

Events are moving quickly and becoming harder to predict. We map upcoming geopolitical risks and flashpoints that will affect corporates and investors. We support our clients to build resilience and identify opportunities, including when deploying capital.

Transaction support

Geopolitics is increasingly determining which investors can invest in what and where. Even investors from ‘friendly’ countries can face obstacles to clearance because of ill-defined national autonomy and security concerns. Our experienced deal team supports clients to approach transactions with a plan for clearance. 

Market and sector-specific analysis

Conditions are changing differently in diverse geographies. We analyse developments in Europe, the US, Asia and elsewhere to advise clients on exposure and opportunities in specific markets and sectors, including the decisions they need to make about their business model, significant customer or supplier relationships, and government engagement. 

Supply chain resilience

Customer, supplier and partnership relationships are coming under pressure from measures such as sanctions, export controls, capital controls, subsidies disputes and informal barriers to trade. Businesses risk supply shortages or failure to meet customer contracts, with consequences for profitability. Our support helps clients to be confident that their business model will be more resilient to geopolitical shocks.

Case studies

Country-risk analysis

A major financial services company asked for an assessment of the geopolitical and supply chain risks in four countries – Mexico, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam – to inform its choice about where it would build manufacturing facilities for a new product.

Flint provided an overview of the domestic political situation, as well as regional and geopolitical outlook in the following countries, applied to the financial services and manufacturing sectors.
We ranked the four countries based on their risk level, particularly looking at political and geopolitical risks, as well as trade and supply chain risks.

Our cross-cutting approach highlighted unforeseen risks in the four jurisdictions, enhancing the companies’ understanding of the risks faced in these countries.
Flint's advice informed the company’s decision to invest in one of the geographies, ruling out some countries given the increased risks.

Ukraine’s impact on the aviation sector

A major international airline needed advice on the impact of the war in Ukraine on their business.
They asked for an analysis of the situation on the ground, the response from Western countries (incl. sanctions) and the short- and medium-term scenarios.

Flint advised the airline on the implications of the crisis on the aviation sector, including the impact on aviation fuels.
We also provided insights on the potential trade implications and their spillover effects on travel (business and leisure).

Flint's advice helped the Board to prioritise risk and focus resources on the most immediate challenges to their commercial position.
Flint assisted the business with a specific sanctions issue that presented a significant commercial challenge and posed a reputational risk.

Impact of geopolitical risk on trade | Ukraine crisis

A major global investor wanted to understand the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global trade and supply chains to sense check their investment hypothesis and scope new opportunities.

Drawing on the latest data and information, we provided a detailed assessment of the first, second and third-order impacts of the invasion on global trade and supply chains.
Produced specific insights on the probable impact of the conflict on a range of industries such as food, semiconductors, defence and electric vehicles.
Presented our assessment in an easily digestible format, with a focus on commercially relevant detail.

Our analysis was used by the client’s investment committee to inform its decision-making.
The investor was able to sense check their internal assumptions against our assessment of the possible trade impact of the conflict.
We gave the investor a competitive edge by accurately identifying a number of second and third-order impacts of the conflict, prior to them becoming part of the public discussion.