Flint advises international businesses and investors on policy, politics, regulation and competition.
Flint advises international businesses and investors on policy, politics, regulation and competition.
Quick links
Sectors
Follow Us
Germany’s 2026 “super election year”, with five state elections and local elections in Bavaria and Hesse, will test the resilience of the political centre and the stability of the CDU/CSU–SPD federal coalition. In the upcoming state elections in March in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the CDU could improve its position and potentially secure two additional Minister-Presidencies, while the SPD faces the risk of losses that may intensify internal debates about its strategic direction. A shift further to the left appears likely and could create deeper rifts within the governing coalition on issues such as the pending reform of health and long-term care insurance and the planned corporate tax reform. The AfD is expected to make further gains across all elections.
Germany will enter a super election year in 2026. Voters in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will elect new state parliaments, while local elections in Bavaria and Hesse will take place in parallel. Taken together, nearly one in three eligible voters nationwide will be called to the polls.
These elections come at a politically sensitive moment, as dissatisfaction with the federal government is rising. Both the CDU and the SPD are polling several percentage points below their federal election results. The AfD is polling strongly across all five states and is even leading the polls in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Populist gains for the hard-right and hard-left have the potential to call into question the future viability of traditional coalitions of the democratic centre. Greater fragmentation and complex coalition formats may become more common. The results of each state and local election throughout the year will be viewed as indicators of public sentiment towards the CDU/CSU–SPD federal government.
In the first quarter of 2026, two state parliament elections and local elections in two further states will be important political litmus tests for Germany, with the potential to reshape the dynamic within the federal government and inform its policy direction.
The election cycle begins on 8 March 2026 in Baden-Württemberg, where around 7.7 million voters will elect a new state parliament in Stuttgart. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be eligible to vote. An estimated 650,000 first-time voters, including roughly 180,000 under the age of 18, will be eligible to vote.
As Germany’s third most populous state and home to globally significant industrial players such as SAP, Mercedes-Benz, Bosch and Trumpf, the “Ländle” carries substantial economic and industrial policy weight.
A defining feature of the race is the departure of Winfried Kretschmann, Germany’s first and only Green Minister-President, who is stepping down after three terms. The CDU enters the race with Manuel Hagel as its lead candidate, while the Greens are led by former federal minister Cem Özdemir. For almost a decade, the state has been governed by a Green-led coalition with the CDU—a balance that now appears set to shift with the CDU leading the polls.
For the FDP, Baden-Württemberg is a question of political survival: as a traditional stronghold of the party, failure to re-enter the state parliament would represent a further severe setback after their failure to enter the Bundestag at last year’s general election, placing the party’s new leadership under significant pressure.
Should Green candidate Cem Özdemir’s distinctly centrist campaign fail to gain traction, this would likely trigger a broader debate within the Greens at federal level, putting additional pressure on the party’s pragmatic “Realo” wing and potentially prompting a recalibration of its strategic positioning in Berlin.
All parties have categorically ruled out cooperation with the AfD, which has recently faced intense media scrutiny over nepotism allegations within party positions. Whether this controversy will affect voter behaviour remains unclear.
A likely outcome at present is a CDU-led government, with the Greens relegated to junior partner status. Such a result would strengthen the CDU at the federal level and reinforce Merz’s position. In Baden-Württemberg, the CDU aims to make the state an “export champion” again by strengthening the automotive industry, with Manuel Hagel emphasising technology neutrality.
Two weeks later, on 22 March 2026, around three million voters in Rhineland-Palatinate will elect a new state parliament. Alexander Schweitzer (SPD), who took office mid-term following Malu Dreyer’s resignation, is seeking to remain Minister-President.
The state has been governed by the SPD for 35 consecutive years, most recently in a traffic-light coalition with the Greens and the FDP. Polling, however, suggests this coalition is no longer viable, and the FDP’s re-entry into parliament is far from guaranteed.
Unlike his predecessor, Schweitzer has yet to establish comparable levels of personal popularity, and the SPD’s performance at federal level continues to weigh on voter sentiment in the state.
A loss of the Minister-Presidency in Rhineland-Palatinate would send shockwaves through the SPD at federal level: combined with a result of under 10% in Baden-Württemberg, it would intensify internal debates in Berlin over whether the party is sufficiently visible within the governing coalition or needs to sharpen its profile by shifting further to the left.
The most probable outcome is currently a CDU-led grand coalition with the SPD, although a left-wing coalition of SPD, Greens and The Left cannot be ruled out. Much will depend on how many smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold to enter into the state parliament.
Alongside the state elections, local elections in March 2026 will provide an important test of regional political sentiment, especially for the CSU-led government in Munich – the Bavarian sister party of the CDU - and the CDU-led government in Wiesbaden.
In Bavaria, the centre-right is expected to hold firm in many traditional strongholds. In Hesse, polling suggests the CDU remains the strongest force ahead of the 2026 municipal elections. However, declining trust in established parties and rising support for protest parties and local lists could signal broader voter dissatisfaction with centrist parties and political leadership.
Should the CDU secure two additional Minister-Presidencies in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, Merz’s party would significantly strengthen its position in the Bundesrat. Chancellor and CDU party leader Friedrich Merz would be expected to frame this outcome as a clear endorsement of his leadership and strategic course at federal level.
The downside: the prospect of losing a Minister-President and overall poor election results are making the SPD nervous. The left wing of the party, already unhappy with the coalition with the CDU/CSU, will argue for a clearer left-wing course. Such a left pivot will make it more difficult to reach consensus within the governing coalition, creating deeper rifts on issues such as the pending reform of health and long-term care insurance and the planned corporate tax reform.
In addition, the SPD may be increasingly tempted to position itself more strongly as a ‘peace party’ with equal distance from the US and Russia. This would weaken the Federal Republic's ability to act in foreign policy. At the European level, such domestic political shifts could also have broader implications. A stronger leftward repositioning of the SPD may complicate Germany’s role as a leading force within the EU, as coalition-internal conflicts could emerge over key EU issues such as the Green Deal, industrial policy and support for Ukraine. However, given the current developments between Iran and the US, the government is likely to strive for a unified stance within the EU and with its international partners.